Gamecocks: Bubble likely burst

I'm not a licensed bracketologist, but I know one. One of my good friends works closely with Joe Lunardi and the maddening process of selecting the field of 65. Here's a look at South Carolina's resume as it sits on the fence:

Gamecocks Resume

21 wins, 10 in the SEC (SEC East co-champs)
RPI: 59 (as of Saturday)
key wins: Auburn, at Baylor, Florida
key losses: Mississippi State (twice), at Florida, Tennessee (twice)
wins vs. RPI top 50 = zero


When you break down the Gamecocks, you have to look at it this way. USC is competing for an at-large bid. There's no need to compare the RPI's of teams that have won automatic bids - just look at the competition for the at-large spots.
The first thing you have to start with is RPI (Ratings Index Percentage). Normally, an RPI in the 30's or 40's can make you feel strong about getting a bid. Teams have gotten into the Dance with an RPI in the 50's, but it's rare.
The next thing you look at is the SEC, which is definitely down this year. With Mississippi State in the SEC title game against Tennessee, you can surmise that LSU and the Vols are locked into the field. The Bulldogs can lock up a 3rd SEC bid or make a case for an at large by making the run to the SEC finals.
So the bottom line is this: if South Carolina gets an at-large bid, that means that four SEC teams will get invited to the tournament. Mississippi State getting two wins over the Gamecocks puts them ahead of USC in the pecking order. Most years, double digit wins in the SEC would lock you into the field, but this year, that's not the case.
The fact that the Gamecocks are 0-4 against RPI top 50 and they have lost three of their last four are two more strikes when there name comes up behind closed doors.
That's why I think, USC is heading to the NIT. Ultimately, they were one win short of making it. If they had beaten Tennessee at home or topped Mississippi State in Atlanta, it would have been a done deal. Clemson, who's RPI is in the 20's - should be a 5 or 6 seed come Sunday.